The biggest mistake when it comes to making final record predictions is assuming everything is going to stay the same in the NFL.
Last year, the Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings were the surprise teams of the NFL. But it wouldn’t be a shocker if all three miss the playoffs this season. That may sound ludicrous—just like my bold prediction of the Carolina Panthers winning the NFC South in 2025—but there are sound reasons to believe each could take a step back.
Below are many more bold takes to go along with over/under predictions for all 32 teams.
Arizona Cardinals: 8.5
Prediction: Over
The Cardinals made strides in coach Jonathan Gannon’s second season, going from four wins to eight. Expect this team to continue trending in the right direction after an influx of talent on the defensive side, including the splash signing of Josh Sweat and draft selections of Walter Nolen and Will Johnson. But the Cardinals are going to need a bounce-back season from Kyler Murray, who appeared uncomfortable when favoring a patient pocket approach rather than leaning on his athleticism to create plays.
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Prediction: Over
There wasn’t enough of a sample size from Michael Penix Jr. as a rookie last year to assume he’s the real deal. But the flashes he displayed in his three starts were enough to go with the over here. Penix now has a year of experience under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and has the luxury of having Bijan Robinson in his backfield and Drake London as his No. 1 target. Also, the Falcons should be better defensively after spending two first-round picks on edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.
Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
Prediction: Over
At some point, you’d think the Ravens will break through the wall they’ve hit the past few seasons in the AFC postseason. It’s tough to tell whether this is the year Lamar Jackson gets to the Super Bowl, but the Ravens have at least proven to be a consistent winner. Baltimore has won at least 10 games in five of Jackson’s six years as a starter, including 12 wins last season and 13 the year before. Don’t expect this loaded team to stop contending in 2025.
Buffalo Bills: 11.5
Prediction: Over
Similar to the Ravens, the Bills also have to get over the playoff hump, but just like Jackson, Josh Allen can also be counted on to at least produce 10 wins on a consistent basis. Buffalo has actually won at least 13 games in three of the last five seasons—including two when the league was still on a 16-game schedule. The reigning MVP won’t enjoy many offensive upgrades, but Buffalo should be better on the defensive side, adding veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa and drafting cornerback Maxwell Hairston.
Carolina Panthers: 6.5
Prediction: Over
After a few dark years for the franchise, coach Dave Canales managed to build a quality offensive line and rushing attack around Bryce Young during his first season at the helm. This team could go from moral victories in 2024 to piling up wins this season with the many notable offseason additions, from signing defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton and safety Tre’von Moehrig to drafting Tetairoa McMillan and edge rusher Nic Scourton.
Chicago Bears: 8.5
Prediction: Under
The Bears have again been widely crowned as an offseason winner, but they didn’t exactly gain much trust after being one of the biggest disappointments of 2024. Until this franchise, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 2020, builds a foundation for a true contender, it’s best to expect Chicago to underperform. Yes, the Bears should have better protection for Caleb Williams after the additions of Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman. But many roster moves were also made last season by GM Ryan Poles and it didn’t translate onto the field. Perhaps coach Ben Johnson can put the pieces together in his first season.
Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5
Prediction: Under
Don’t let this team fool you into going over just because they have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Last year, the Bengals had one of the best offenses in the league, but only produced nine wins and missed the postseason due to a poor defense. Cincinnati didn’t do much to improve the defense and there’s a chance edge rusher Trey Hendrickson isn’t on the roster by Week 1.
Cleveland Browns: 4.5
Prediction: Under
If one of the rookie quarterbacks, Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, don’t flash in training camp, expect the Browns to look ahead to the 2026 draft in hopes of landing a true franchise signal-caller. It’s tough seeing a career resurgence from Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett while playing for a roster with a lot of holes. It’s never a good sign when a team heads into the summer with four quarterbacks competing for the starting job.
Dallas Cowboys: 7.5
Prediction: Over
At first glance, this one seems to be a no-brainer after the Cowboys acquired wide receiver George Pickens in a trade with the Steelers. But going with the over is far from a sure bet because of Dallas’s difficult schedule, which includes games against the NFC North and AFC West. There could also be growing pains for first-time coach Brian Schottenheimer. Still, go with the over and bank on the team’s investments on both sides of the trenches.
Denver Broncos: 9.5
Prediction: Under
The Broncos might not have done enough to improve Bo Nix’s receiving corps. There’s also the possibility of Nix having a second-year slump with opposing defenses now knowing what to expect from the 2024 No. 12 pick. Denver’s defense should be better, but the team gambled with signing safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, two players with injury concerns.
Detroit Lions: 10.5
Prediction: Over
Don’t worry too much about the Lions going into a season without former coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes are still around, and they stuck to their successful blueprint of adding tough players for both sides of the trenches. The depth on the offensive line and defensive front should pay off again in 2025.
Green Bay Packers: 9.5
Prediction: Under
The Packers had a strange offseason plan, going with a surplus of wide receivers instead of addressing the needs on the defensive front. By drafting two receivers, Green Bay made clear it wasn’t pleased with the wideouts from last year, but there could also be an argument for Jordan Love failing to elevate his teammates during a shaky Year 2 as the starter.
Houston Texans: 9.5
Prediction: Over
There’s some hesitation here because the Texans didn’t improve the offensive line through the draft after tearing apart last year’s starting unit. They’re going to need veteran tackles Cam Robinson and Trent Brown to hold up for the entire season. But if the offensive line is decent, C.J. Stroud could have another impressive season with the arrivals of rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Indianapolis Colts: 7.5
Prediction: Under
It could be another long season for coach Shane Steichen with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones as his two quarterback options. Jones struggled with consistency in six seasons with the Giants, and Richardson's accuracy drastically regressed last season and there are concerns about his work ethic. There’s also plenty of work for new Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who needs to improve the pass rush and coverage.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5
Prediction: Over
If Trevor Lawrence stays healthy, he could be equipped for a career season with the hiring of coach Liam Coen and draft selection of Travis Hunter. Coen helped Baker Mayfield deliver the best season of his career last year as the offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers. Expect Lawrence to push the ball often with his new receiving duo of Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
Prediction: Under
The Chiefs will again be contenders, but they had many breaks go their way, piling up one-score victories for an impressive 15–2 record last season. They might not be as lucky as last season, and after the dismal Super Bowl showing, this veteran-filled team probably isn’t interested in going all out in the regular season for the sake of clinching the No. 1 seed.
Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5
Prediction: Over
The Raiders were one of the most improved teams this offseason. First, they hired a proven coach in Pete Carroll, and followed with the blockbuster trade for quarterback Geno Smith. Winning seven games seems attainable for a team that also has Maxx Crosby playing on defense.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5
Prediction: Over
The Chargers won 11 games during their first season with coach Jim Harbaugh despite several holes on the roster. This offense should be better with the first-round selection of running back Omarion Hampton and second-round selection of Tre Harris, who’ll team up with Ladd McConkey. This could be a dynamic season for Justin Herbert after several conservative performances last year.
Los Angeles Rams: 9.5
Prediction: Over
The Rams appear to be one of the better teams in the NFC after signing wide receiver Davante Adams. If Matthew Stafford has another productive season, this talented team could contend with the Eagles and Lions in the conference. Los Angeles also has the benefit of playing four games against the subpar AFC South.
Miami Dolphins: 8.5
Prediction: Under
The Dolphins could be headed for a rebuild after getting minimal returns on their aggressive trades the past few seasons. Also, Miami’s limited cap space hasn’t allowed the team to add much talent through free agency, which could lead to Tua Tagovailoa playing behind a poor offensive line.
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
Prediction: Over
It’s rarely a bad idea to bet on coach Kevin O’Connell, who helped revive Sam Darnold’s career en route to the team winning 14 games. With a strong supporting cast, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy do just as well as Darnold, if not better. Also, Minnesota made multiple upgrades to the offensive line.
New England Patriots: 8.5
Prediction: Under
It’s usually wise to back coach Mike Vrabel, but this total seems too high for one of the worst teams in the league last season. But there is plenty to like, especially because of the potential Drake Maye showed as a rookie. The Patriots made many moves to try to transform into a playoff contender, but it’s tough to overlook how poorly this team has been the past few seasons.
New Orleans Saints: 6.5
Prediction: Under
The Saints are already behind after the abrupt retirement of Derek Carr. New coach Kellen Moore has the daunting task of getting rookie Tyler Shough to produce immediately, unless Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener surprisingly wins the starting job. Also, this veteran-filled defense could struggle with applying consistent pressure on quarterbacks and they could use another reliable outside cornerback.
New York Giants: 5.5
Prediction: Over
The Giants won’t get the benefits that usually come with a last-place schedule, because not only do they have tough divisional games, they have to face the teams from the rugged NFC North and AFC West. But with better quarterback options, New York should be able to clear five wins. Also, the stacked defensive front could keep them in a handful of games.
New York Jets: 5.5
Prediction: Over
The new-look Jets have been overlooked this offseason, which could be a good thing after all the attention they received during two years with Aaron Rodgers. Yes, Justin Fields is an inconsistent passer, but he’ll likely be well protected behind an offensive line that gained first-round rookie right tackle Armand Membou. Rookie tight end Mason Taylor could also be very beneficial for Fields in New York.
Philadelphia Eagles: 11.5
Prediction: Over
Always beware of the fatigued Super Bowl teams. But there’s plenty of youth on this team, some that will be counted on to replace the veterans that left during free agency, including Josh Sweat and Milton Williams. The Eagles have a difficult schedule, but they have the benefit of leaning on a stout offensive line and star running back Saquon Barkley.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
Prediction: Under
It hasn’t been a good look for the Steelers to wait around for a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers to decide whether to play for them. Pittsburgh made a mistake not looking to get younger at quarterback and now desperately need Rodgers to sign and hold up for an entire season. Even with the trade for DK Metcalf, this could be the team that ends coach Mike Tomlin’s 18-year streak of non-losing seasons.
San Francisco 49ers: 10.5
Prediction: Under
This total is surprisingly high for a team that had a player exodus this offseason. Yes, the 49ers still have plenty of talent, but it’s not a given that Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey will stay healthy or that wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will quickly regain his top form after a significant knee injury. There will be many inexperienced players starting on the defensive side.
Seattle Seahawks: 8.5
Prediction: Under
Versatile rookie Grey Zabel can’t fill all the holes on the offensive line. It could be a long first season in Seattle for Sam Darnold if the protection isn’t drastically better than what Geno Smith received last year. Also, the Seahawks got risky by betting on older veterans, such as Cooper Kupp and DeMarcus Lawrence, two players with durability concerns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5
Prediction: Under
This is a difficult bet because it’s not easy going against the four-time NFC South champions. But this total is too high for a team that hasn’t won more than 10 games since 2021. They’ll again flirt with double-digit victories, but there could be some regression with Liam Coen no longer calling plays for Baker Mayfield.
Tennessee Titans: 5.5
Prediction: Under
It was a miserable first season for coach Brian Callahan in Tennessee. Now he needs rookie quarterback Cam Ward to produce right away in an offense that struggled with execution last season. But if Ward protects the football better than Will Levis did last season, this team could show positive signs in 2025.
Washington Commanders: 9.5
Prediction: Over
This could be a tough bet to hit because of the Commanders’ difficult schedule, but there’s no denying this team got better after the surprising trip to the NFC championship game. Jayden Daniels will get to throw to Deebo Samuel and his blindside will be protected by Laremy Tunsil. The defense could use another pass rusher, but the secondary should be better this season, especially with Marshon Lattimore getting a full offseason in Washington.
