The AFC was superior to the NFC last season — and that was when the NFC still had Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in the fold. With Rodgers switching conferences and Brady retired, the disparity is even more drastic and it’s best represented in the betting markets: A look at the Super Bowl LVIII odds at SI Sportsbook reveals that eight of the top 12 favorites are from the AFC.
After Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs followed Brady and the Bucs, the Super Bowl-winning team has now alternated between the two conferences each of the last six years. The last repeat was from 2014-16 when the AFC won three consecutive Lombardi Trophies.
The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook like the AFC’s chances of winning another ring this year, especially with the defending champion Chiefs installed as the favorites. The odds that the Super Bowl winner hails from the AFC are -137 compared to +100 for the NFC.
There are several capable contenders in the AFC, starting with Kansas City (+550). The Bills (+800), Bengals (+900), Jets (+1400), Chargers (+2000), Ravens (+2000), Dolphins (+2000) and Jaguars (+2500) also all have a shot. Compare that to the NFC where the Eagles (+800), 49ers (+800), Cowboys (+1400) and Lions (+2000) make up the short list of teams from that conference in the top 12.
From a value perspective, bettors might be better off trying to pinpoint the division of the Super Bowl LVIII winner rather than the conference. The division odds are as follows:
AFC West +330
AFC East +350
NFC East +350
AFC North +450
NFC West +600
NFC North +900
NFC South +1400
AFC South +1800
This is a way to get a few bites at the apple rather than swinging and missing on a single team.
The AFC West was thought to be a super division of sorts a year ago and though it did not deliver on that hype it was still home to the eventual champions. Largely due to the Chiefs, and to a lesser extent, the Chargers, the AFC West (+330) has the best Super Bowl odds heading into 2023. Though the Broncos (+3300) should be much improved with coach Sean Payton at the helm, just a playoff appearance would be a big step after the disaster in Denver last season.
The AFC East and NFC East are tied for the next-best odds (+350). The AFC East got better with Rodgers’s arrival in New York and key defensive upgrades in Miami. New England (+5000) also made a key coaching change that should help the offense along and Buffalo added to a roster that’s taken home three consecutive division titles. As for the NFC East, Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl appearance and though Dallas keeps hitting a wall in the postseason, this remains one of the best rosters in the league. New York (+4000) made the playoffs last season in Brian Daboll’s first year at the helm while Washington (+6600) clawed its way to .500.
The first key drop-off is to the AFC North (+450) and this division may actually offer the best value on the board. Cincinnati and Baltimore are both top-flight contenders with franchise quarterbacks who made offseason upgrades to areas of need — the Bengals added left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and the Ravens acquired receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. The Browns (+3300) are a wild card largely dependent upon the play of Deshaun Watson and the Steelers (+5000) could take a leap in Kenny Pickett’s second season.
The NFC West (+600) has to be mentioned because of San Francisco, but there’s still the quarterback question looming large over this team. Brock Purdy, Trey Lance or Sam Darnold? If the Niners get even average play out of the position, they should be back in the conference title game for the fourth time in five years. The Seahawks (+3300) profile as a playoff team yet again and they also bolstered their roster with a pair of first-round picks.
There aren’t as many viable options in the NFC North (+900), NFC South (+1400) or AFC South (+1800). Detroit has the best shot of any NFC North team after posting a winning record last season. In the NFC South, the Saints (+3300) have the best Super Bowl odds but the division winner last year went finished .500 and eight wins could do the trick once again. And in the AFC South, after Jacksonville it’s difficult to make a case for another team making the playoffs, let alone a run, unless you’re a Titans (+6600) truther. The odds are better to bet on the Jaguars outright rather than their division as a whole, anyway.
The AFC West is the rightful favorite, but the best value may actually lie in the AFC North. Any further down the list and it’s probably preferable to bet on the top team from that division rather than the division at large considering there’s so few viable contenders in the NFC North, NFC South and AFC South.
