Good morning! It’s a great day to check in on the NFL futures markets.
Kickoff is still weeks away, but what better time than the dead of summer to extract some value by looking ahead to the season at SI Sportsbook?
Beyond an early look at the AFC East, the latest edition of Winners Club touches on Toronto’s hopes under new management after making a midseason change, a fantasy football Q&A and live updates from the British Open.
Super Bowl-Favorite Bills the Team to Beat in AFC East
A new SI Betting series launched this week centered on NFL teams’ regular-season win totals projections. At SI Sportsbook, you can find win totals for all 32 teams as well as player props, awards odds and, of course, Super Bowl futures.
The over/under betting breakdown begins with the AFC East:
Buffalo Bills: 11.5 — Over (-150) | Under (-105)
AFC East future odds: -200 (First)
AFC future odds: +333 (First)
Super Bowl future odds: +650 (First)
“For a team that’s advanced in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Bills have had quite a significant amount of roster turnover this year, but almost all of it has been for the better.”
Miami Dolphins: 8.5 — Over (-133) | Under (-105)
AFC East future odds: +400 (Tied-second)
AFC future odds: +1800 (Tied-ninth)
Super Bowl future odds: +3300 (Tied-16th)
“Considering the Dolphins were able to upgrade practically everywhere on offense and keep intact a pretty good defense, it’s difficult to pick at anything they did in the offseason.”
New England Patriots: 8.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)
AFC East future odds: +400 (Tied-second)
AFC future odds: +2000 (Tied-11th)
Super Bowl future odds: +3300 (Tied-16th)
“The departure of long-time offensive play caller Josh McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders left the immediate future of second-year quarterback Mac Jones in the unproven hands of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia.”
New York Jets: 5.5 — Over (-200) | Under (+140)
AFC East future odds: +1600 (Fourth)
AFC future odds: +6600 (15th)
Super Bowl future odds: +15000 (Tied-31st)
“The Jets made significant improvements on both sides of the ball this offseason, bolstering position groups that needed to be addressed. Their secondary is much stronger, New York’s deep pass rush is even deeper and on offense, second-year quarterback Zach Wilson is surrounded by plenty of weapons.”
Toronto fired manager Charlie Montoyo this week after a disappointing first half of the season given preseason expectations for the club. Bench coach John Schneider will be the interim manager for the rest of the season.
The Blue Jays (47-43) are in possession of one of the American League Wild Card spots but are still well behind the first-place Yankees and even the struggling Rays. Entering the year, Toronto was the favorite to win the AL East (+165) and get to the World Series in the AL (+800).
Those odds have dropped to +4000 to win the division and they are +1000 to represent the AL in the World series, though the Astros (+210) and Yankees (+160) are well ahead of the Blue Jays at the midway point of the season.
Toronto’s World Series champion odds now stand at +2000, which Jen Piacenti likes as a value bet.
“First, they have to get through the Yankees—that's why even +4000 doesn't persuade me to bet on them to win the division,” Piacenti writes.
This shakeup could also be a wakeup call for an offense that has been good but could be great with hitters like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. The All-Star break is almost upon us—there’s a lot of baseball left to be played.
Fantasy Football Q&A with Michael Fabiano
Also new this week and exclusive for Winners Club subscribers is a weekly offseason fantasy football mailbag with our very own Michael Fabiano!
Fabiano will answer a handful of user-submitted questions each week in the Friday edition of Winners Club as we approach NFL kickoff. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Fabiano so that you don’t miss out on the chance to have your questions answered. And remember, you can always email [email protected] to submit questions as well.
@PredictStrike: Will Mac Jones take a leap in Year 2?
Fabiano: Jones finished as the QB18 a season ago, which is pretty impressive for a rookie quarterback. While I can see a slight statistical leap in Year 2, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he becomes a weekly fantasy starter. The Patriots ranked 27th in passing percentage in 2021, averaging 31.5 attempts per game. That number is certainly a bit skewed since Jones had one game with three passes (Week 13), but I still don’t expect the Patriots to throw the ball a ton. So, while Jones might see an increase in yards and touchdowns as a sophomore, I don’t think a major leap is in the cards.
@DraftRBs: Why are we pretending like Elijah Mitchell isn’t a bell cow?
Fabiano: Honestly, I don’t think anyone is pretending that Mitchell won’t be the main back for the 49ers this season. In his 11 games, he averaged a 41.9% touch share. Mitchell also saw 20-plus carries in each of his final five games. The concern fantasy managers have is that he missed six games due to injuries. Such a situation could open the door for another running back, like Tyrion Davis-Price, to earn more touches. Still, I have him ranked as a low-end No. 2 back who has top-15 potential in a best-case scenario.
@RushBaby1980: Is Patrick Mahomes worth drafting in the third or fourth round?
Fabiano: I never draft a quarterback that early in a traditional league, so I might be the wrong person to ask! Seriously though, if I was the type of manager who liked drafting one that soon, I’d be more comfortable getting him in the fourth or fifth round and not in the third. He’s my No. 3 quarterback behind Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, who will be picked ahead of him in most drafts after the Chiefs traded away superstar wideout Tyreek Hill.
Remember, Fabiano will be back next week to answer your questions, so get them in early!
More fantasy football reading:
Dynasty, Rooke and Redraft IDP Rankings: For those already privy to the wonders of individual defensive player leagues or if you’re looking to give it a go, consult these comprehensive player rankings to get a grasp of positional value in this alternative format.
Redistributing Targets in the Ravens Offense: Baltimore traded away WR1 Marquise Brown, on draft night and didn’t make any big acquisitions to replace his production. See how the Ravens might fill their available targets in 2022.
Fantasy Fades and Busts: It’s important to know which players to stay away from in your drafts, no matter their past production. These seven players could spell doom for your team this season if you end up with them.
One-Man Fantasy Mock Draft: Understand the strategy behind Michael Fabiano’s 10-round mock in which he drafted for 12 different teams. Running backs dominated the first round and the depth at receiver was on full display.
Late-Round Fliers Worth Picking: The goal as fantasy drafts progress is to continue to find contributors even in the later rounds. There’s value to be had in Round 10 and beyond—find out which players with low draft positions could carve out a role on your roster.
In Other News
British Open Day 2 Updates: Rory McIlroy began the day as the odds-on favorite at SI Sportsbook, but it’s Dustin Johnson who has the lead (for now) at St. Andrews. Follow along with The Morning Read for live coverage of the event.
Big 12 College Football Betting Futures: The Sooners are the favorites (+160) to win the Big 12 once again in Year 1 under new head coach Brent Venables. Next in line are the Longhorns (+250). Can anyone unseat OU? And is Texas back once and for all?
Knicks and Jazz Discussing Donovan Mitchell Trade: Utah is reportedly in talks with multiple teams about a possible trade of its three-time All-Star and New York, where Mitchell is from, has emerged as a “focused destination.”
NHL Free Agency Tracker: Johnny Gaudreau, Dylan Strome and Claude Giroux have all inked deals to join new teams. Stay up on all of the top signings and get The Hockey News’ take on each deal.
